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☆ Oil prices aren't the Fed's biggest problem right now — American demand is, says an economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Israel's strike on Iran caused oil prices to spike, sparking fears of rising inflation. But US inflation is more impacted by strong domestic demand than by oil prices, an economist told Bloomberg TV. Oil prices gained as much as 4% following reports of the attack before later subsiding. Services is demand, and that demand needs to come from somewhere — and that's a robust economy," Chaar told Bloomberg. "I would say the biggest challenge here for the Fed is to manage the demand of the US economy," Chaar said.

Persons: —, Samy Chaar, Lombard Odier, Jerome Powell, Chaar Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Fed, Bloomberg TV, Federal, Services, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Iran, Israel, —, Swiss, America

Hopes for lower borrowing costs overnight helped shares in Asia, which missed out on Friday's rally that was inspired by the U.S. jobs data. DOLLAR DROPSTwo-year Treasury yields , which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 5.9 bps to 4.891% after falling 18 bps last week. The recent retreat in Treasury yields pulled the rug out from under the dollar last week. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, was steady at 105.07 after sliding 1.4% last week. U.S. crude rose 1.73% to $81.90 per barrel and Brent was at $86.07, up 1.39% on the day.

Persons: Issei Kato, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, BoE, Samy Chaar, Jerome Powell, Brent, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Lombard, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, New York, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza

Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312%, testing October's 4.338%, a break past which would be its highest since 2007. "What's interesting is usually when you have volatility around rates that's the market trying to price in a higher fed funds rate. "The impact of higher yields is standard: a dollar that is well supported and equities under pressure," he added. MSCI's world index (.MIWD00000PUS) was down 0.1% on Thursday, having dropped to its lowest level since July 6 early in the session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid to its lowest since late November in early trading Thursday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samy Chaar, der Linde, Van der Linde, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Lombard, Atlanta Federal, Nasdaq, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, HSBC, Reuters Global Markets, Finance, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SINGAPORE, CHINA, China's, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, London, Bengaluru

☆ Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Fall; Meta Stock Rises Premarket
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Government-bond yields rose in the U.S. and Europe, reflecting recent statements by major central banks that they will keep raising interest rates to curtail inflation. Weakening activity in the services sector is a big reason for the pressure on global markets today, said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier. U.S. stock futures fell. Government-bond yields rose. Yields rose in Germany, the U.K. and France, too.

Persons: Samy Chaar, ”, Dow, Hang Seng Organizations: Services, Lombard, Nasdaq, Overseas, Nikkei Locations: Government, U.S, Europe, Shanghai, Germany, France, Brent, Iran

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 9, 2023. Wall Street futures were up, pointing to another session of gains after the S&P 500 rose for the fourth week in a row last week. "Obviously if we have a big negative surprise on inflation and inflation comes in much hotter than expected, that is going to challenge central banks and the Fed in its 'pause' strategy," he said. Money markets are pricing in around a 75% chance of the Fed keeping rates steady, and a 25% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: Europe's, Samy Chaar, Lombard, Elizabeth Howcroft, Sharon Singleton, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, CPI, Fed, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Wall, Nasdaq, Investors, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, U.S, Europe, Hong Kong

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, May 26, 2023. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reached a tentative deal on Saturday to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, aiming to stop the U.S. from defaulting on its debt. The deal is expected to provide only short-term relief for markets, as worries linger about inflation and further rate increases. European stock indexes initially opened higher, then faltered, with Europe's STOXX 600 down 0.1% on the day (.STOXX). If the debt ceiling deal passes through Congress, then market attention will return to the U.S. Federal Reserve's plans for rates, according to Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.

If you look, it's in Lebanese pounds, so is this the price? To solve the exchange rate confusion, the government needs to implement one unified rate. Shop owner Mahmoud Chaar told Reuters the exchange rate was changing so fast that his business was losing money overnight. Like many business owners, Chaar has to pay in U.S. dollars to import goods but sells in Lebanese pounds. "Basically, we lost in the exchange rate difference what we had made in profit," Chaar told Reuters.

☆ Quotes: Global banks under pressure as SVB triggers contagion worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - The health of the global banking sector as interest rates rise remained in the spotlight on Tuesday in the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). But days of wild swings in global markets and hefty losses in bank shares, left the outlook for the sector in focus. Banks are now faced with the classic problem that has threatened banks throughout history: a mismatch in terms between assets and liabilities." Hopefully we'll go over the next few days, whether or not the financial system is going to calm down or not. "It’s been an indiscriminate sell off in banking stocks, the financial sector repriced everywhere.

European stocks have vastly outperformed their U.S. peers. The euro STOXX (.STOXXE) benchmark has beaten its U.S. peer, the S&P 500 (.SPX), by over 18 percentage points since September. "It's a very big move in European gas prices and that has dramatically improved the outlook. "Lower gas prices are surely a positive, but their rapid fall also tell us that they can rise just as fast should things go wrong. A closely watched index of European corporate credit (.MERER00) has seen its yield fall nearly 50 basis points this year.

☆ How to play the Fed's moves in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow to play the Fed's moves in 2023Sammy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, discusses what the U.S. Federal Reserve might do in 2023 and how investors should be positioned.

☆ ECB delivers fourth straight increase but slows pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

COMMENTS:FLORIAN HENSE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, UNION INVESTMENT, FRANKFURT”This is probably the most hawkish 50 basis points they could come up with. Everything I read in the statement press release sounds hawkish and maybe even “very hawkish” to me. However, core inflation momentum remains firm and the labour market tight.”MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON:“It (the ECB statement) is very hawkish. “The 50 bps hike was expected and the pace of QT (quantitative tightening) was in the ballpark of what folks were expecting. “Even though the ECB is now going at it a bit slower, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re also going to target a lower terminal rate.

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The Australian and Canadian central banks both raised rates by less than expected at their October meetings, and markets read a dovish tone in last week's European Central Bank 75 basis point hike. The euro barely reacted after data released on Monday that showed eurozone inflation came in hotter than expected at 10.7%, a fresh record high. Elsewhere, the Chinese yuan slumped after data released on Monday showed China's factory activity unexpectedly fell in October, weighed down by softening global demand and strict domestic COVID-19 curbs. The U.S. dollar climbed 2% on Brazil's Real after former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated President Jair Bolsonaro in a run-off election.

☆ The Bank of England needs to keep the gilt market operating properly, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Bank of England needs to keep the gilt market operating properly, says economistSamy Chaar of Lombard Odier says "it's very easy to say that pension funds have to get their act together," but they would need a functioning gilt market with liquidity to do so.

☆ Reactions: Britain's pound crumbles to record lows in firesale of UK assets
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Wads of British Pound Sterling banknotes are stacked in piles at the Money Service Austria company's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, November 16, 2017. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File PhotoLONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Britain's pound plunged to record lows on Monday and bonds were slammed for a second day, as investors punished UK assets after the government's mini-budget announcement last week. The presentation of the mini-budget was received quite badly by the markets – sterling literally collapsed. The significant tax cuts announced by the Treasury Secretary cause concerns for the currency markets because of rising government debt." One is the loss of confidence in UK fiscal policy and that won't help sterling.

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